Kroger, Vidmob, and MMA Global today announced the findings of a new industry study demonstrating that predictive creative scoring can accurately forecast e-commerce purchase conversion before media is activated, giving marketers a repeatable framework for connecting creative decisions to business outcomes.

The study analyzed 1,934 video and image assets from Kroger campaigns across Meta and DV360, identifying the creative attributes most strongly linked to e-commerce conversion. The model was trained on a full year of 2025 campaign data and validated against an independent Q1 2026 dataset, enabling it to predict future creative performance rather than simply explain past results.

The research set out to answer a central question: can a brand’s unique creative data enable AI-powered predictive scoring to forecast conversions before campaigns launch? To find out, Kroger, Vidmob and MMA Global brought together Kroger’s live campaign data, Vidmob’s creative data platform, and MMA Global’s industry research standards to evaluate creative variables such as visual treatment, messaging, narrative structure, branding and on-screen human interaction. Findings were validated through both statistical significance testing and forward-looking predictive testing.

Among the findings:

  • Predictive creative scoring forecast e-commerce conversion with 81% accuracy.
  • Creative aligned with the model’s recommendations averaged 4x higher conversion rates across Meta and DV360, at up to a 70% lower cost per conversion.
  • Reallocating media toward higher-scoring creative could generate up to 2.2x as many conversions from the same advertising budget.

One of the strongest findings held across platforms: creative centered on authentic human experiences outperformed creative focused primarily on products or the act of shopping. For Kroger, whose brand purpose is to “Feed the Human Spirit,” the research showed that campaigns featuring relatable human moments, like people sharing and enjoying food, produced stronger e-commerce results than transactional shopping imagery or product-first creative.

“Every brand can produce more creative than ever. The advantage now belongs to the ones who know which creative will drive the outcome they need,” said Alex Collmer, Founder & Executive Chairman at Vidmob. “Kroger’s results show what happens when brands treat creative performance as ownable IP: every choice becomes measurable, and every campaign makes the next one smarter. This is the beginning of creative data becoming the foundation for how marketers plan, buy and measure across every category, not just retail.”

“As AI makes creative production ten times faster, judgment has to scale with it,” said Vas Bakopoulos, Head of Insights & Research at MMA Global. “Kroger’s results show predictive scoring can bring that judgment in before a campaign launches. And that’s the start of where creative data can go. The next chapter goes deeper, to the segment level, and wider, into mix models and buying tools, so creative earns a seat at the table where investment decisions are made.”

The full whitepaper details the study’s methodology, creative guidelines, and operational considerations for applying predictive creative scoring across categories. It is available for download here: https://vidblog.vidmob.com/case-studies/predictive-creative-scoring-kroger

About Vidmob

Vidmob is The Creative Data Company. Its scoring software and analytics have become an essential ingredient in the creative and media decisions of the world’s largest marketers and agencies, as they drive business results through improved creative effectiveness. As the industry leader in creative data, Vidmob’s influence lies in its partnerships and integrations across the digital ad ecosystem, its dozens of proprietary models, and in the most robust design and AI human-reinforcement of its kind. The company has received over $200 million in venture funding, backed by industry leaders like Adobe, and has received numerous awards including Digiday’s Most Innovative Technology Award, IMA’s Platform of the Year, and Ad Age’s Best places to Work. Learn more about Vidmob at www.vidmob.com.

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